By Molly Dugan and Phillip Reese -- Bee Staff Writers
Even
if motorists can't see the homes rising up in eastern Sacramento County, it's
hard to miss the signs on Highway 50.
Huge billboards advertise new homes in new communities, with pictures of lush parks, modern two-story homes and smiling nuclear families.
A recent population estimate from the state Department of Finance analyzed by The Bee confirms what many residents in eastern Sacramento County know: Rancho Cordova and Folsom are booming.
With
more land being zoned for development, the growth rate in the two cities is
expected to climb, despite a predicted leveling throughout much of the region
and state.
Rancho Cordova's growth rate spiked from 0.7 in 2005 - the first year on record for the new city - to 2.4 percent in 2006. In Folsom, the growth rate peaked in 2002 at 7.5 percent, falling every year to 2.3 percent in 2006.
Rancho Cordova's estimated population at build-out is 350,000. The 2000 census placed Rancho Cordova's population at 55,000.
Folsom may annex land south of Highway 50 for development, increasing the city's geographic area by 25 percent.
Growth in Citrus Heights and unincorporated Sacramento County, however, remains stagnant. Citrus Heights has seen a population decrease for three years, with the most significant drop, 0.6 percent, in 2006. Unincorporated Sacramento County's growth rate slightly rose in 2006, from zero growth the previous year, to 0.2 percent.
El Dorado Hills is seeing small, steady declines in the growth rate, at 2.2 percent in 2002, compared with 1.6 percent in 2006. Placerville is losing residents, with the biggest drop, 0.6 percent, in 2006.
"Within a year, there's going to be ups and downs," said Gordon Garry, director of research and analysis for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments. "One year doesn't make a trend. It's how growth happens over a long period of time."
Besides the availability of land for development, a community's history, politics and sensibilities impact not only the growth rate, but also what type of growth occurs, Garry said.
"They all have their own histories with growth," Garry said. "What happened in the past determines the ongoing debate about growth in each jurisdiction."
For example, in Fair Oaks and Orangevale, the communities value rural residential development, so there's little push for large subdivisions, Garry said.
"People like having horses there," he said.
In eastern Sacramento County, available land for development is a major difference between the growing communities and the stagnant or declining ones.
Rancho Cordova and Folsom have another factor in common - the local leaders and the majority of citizens support and encourage more growth.
Rancho Cordova and Folsom have thousands of acres to develop and few protests over major subdivisions.
Citrus Heights, on the other hand, has two dozen small infill projects in the works but nowhere to build large subdivisions, office parks or shopping centers.
But infill in Citrus Heights is problematic. The city has several active neighborhood associations that oppose many of the infill development projects that are proposed. While the residents are not credited with halting any major infill projects, they have won some concessions - such as fewer homes in a few of the developments.
Although Folsom's growth rate has dipped, leaders don't expect the trend to continue for very long. The city is looking at annexing 3,600 acres of oak trees and pastureland south of Highway 50.
In 2004, Folsom voters passed a ballot measure that would allow for growth south of Highway 50, provided that 30 percent of land is preserved as open space, an adequate water supply is found before issuing building permits and current residents do not pay for schools in the area.
After the measure passed with 70 percent of the vote, the city held several workshops to get input from residents. They favored denser, mixed-use development, with walkable neighborhoods and plenty of parks and trails.
